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Fed Rate Cut May Lead to Surprisingly High Oil Price Gains

Former Goldman Sachs "commodities bull" Jeff Currie said that commodities have significant upside potential, and a Federal Reserve rate cut could send oil prices much higher than the current consensus of $70 to $90 per barrel.

"In this environment, I want to be long on oil and other commodities," Currie said in an interview on Tuesday, his first since joining Carlyle Group from Goldman Sachs.

Currie, who was once the "face" of Goldman Sachs' commodities research and was known for his bullish price forecasts, said that China's support for manufacturing and Europe's restocking efforts all mean that commodity prices will be strong, especially oil and copper. "From here, there's a lot of upside potential," he said.

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A day before his comments, copper prices hit an 11-month high as the market speculated that a Federal Reserve rate cut could stimulate demand, coupled with concerns about the risk of copper supply from mines and smelters.

Recently, despite Brent crude prices being relatively stable, they briefly rose to just over $87 per barrel on Tuesday amid concerns about the impact of shutdowns at Russian refineries.

Currie pointed out that in the long run, the lack of coordination and chaos in energy transition will lead to increased price volatility. He said that having both traditional fossil fuel assets and green energy is key to hedging these risks.

He mentioned: "Three years ago, everyone was talking about the potential of green energy, and this week they are all questioning it. The reality lies somewhere in between."

In addition, Frederic Lasserre, head of global research and analysis at Gunvor Group Ltd., said that even if OPEC+ decides not to extend the current production cut agreement, oil prices in the third quarter could be around $85-$90 per barrel.He noted that if Saudi Arabia and its allies extend the production cut measures beyond the second quarter, oil prices may rise further. Currently, Saudi Arabia has no plans to continue reducing production after the second quarter.

Abundant supply has kept international oil prices around $80 per barrel for most of this year, despite conflicts in the Middle East disrupting regional shipping and the ongoing escalation of the war between Russia and Ukraine.

Lasserre said, "If Saudi Arabia wants to stabilize oil prices around $80, they have no choice but to reassume the role of a swing producer and try to control supply in a very short time."

Lasserre and Trafigura Group's Global Oil Director Ben Luckock warned that due to the rise in geopolitical risks and disruptions to key trade routes such as the Panama Canal and the Red Sea, oil prices remain vulnerable to spikes.

Lasserre expects China's demand for oil to increase by about 700,000 barrels per day this year, accounting for about 50% of the total global demand growth this year.

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